Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,244,970$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.81 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,186,292.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 149.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,186,292.8\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $188,538$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{171,033.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 70.5)}}\) (asimptote \(171,033.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,754,245$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $629,409$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.94 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{712,984.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 124.4)}}\) (asimptote \(712,984.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $67,326$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{72,203.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 108.8)}}\) (asimptote \(72,203.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $43,239$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $96,305$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116,569.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 136.5)}}\) (asimptote \(116,569.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,075$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(85.7 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,852.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,852.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,007$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $133,511$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(80.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,914.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 62.9)}}\) (asimptote \(119,914.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,192$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,949.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,949.9\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,351$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $64,352$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,644.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 123.6)}}\) (asimptote \(66,644.2\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,006$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(74.5 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,318.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 124.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,318.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $49,231$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $98,776$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,298.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.4)}}\) (asimptote \(128,298.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,840$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(161 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,754.0}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 175.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,754.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,035$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $77,481$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,516.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 125.5)}}\) (asimptote \(84,516.2\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,845$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(116 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,982.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 107.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,982.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,041$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $26,206$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(799 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,787.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 126.7)}}\) (asimptote \(31,787.2\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $752$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(21.6 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{850.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 120.4)}}\) (asimptote \(850.5\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,867$ on 2020-09-05
